Available for Consulting

Solving Economic Puzzles
with Causal AI

Applied Economist bridging advanced quantitative modeling and national policy. I translate complex findings into actionable strategies for the World Bank, USAID, and Fortune 500 leaders.

Ahmed Dawoud - Applied Economist & Causal AI Expert

Worked at & with

Thirty Five Investment Holding Egyptian Center for Economic Studies ProfitOPS.ai ORF Middle East UPS USAID WestRock Dematic Titan Brands National Bank of Egypt Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research

About Me

Ahmed Dawoud is an applied economist specialising in causal inference and Bayesian methods, with more than nine years turning quantitative evidence into decisions for senior executives, government ministers and development partners, including the World Bank and USAID.

He is Head of Research at Thirty Five Investment Holding in Qatar, where he works with the investment team on due diligence, feasibility analysis and opportunity screening across critical minerals, energy, infrastructure, food security and real estate in Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

He is also a Consultant to the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES), where he spent nine years rising from Research Analyst to Principal Economist and Head of the data science unit, where he led a team of economists and AI engineers, directed donor-funded policy research briefed to ministers, and built Egypt's first real-time labour-demand platform.

Previously, as Head of Decision Science at ProfitOPS.ai, he led causal-AI work for Fortune 100 clients including UPS and WestRock, and created ProRCA, an open-source tool that traces falling business KPIs to their root causes.

He has authored more than 15 studies, research papers and reports on trade, AI and labour markets, and Egypt–Gulf relations, and holds an honours economics degree, with a minor in statistics, from Cairo University.

Professional Journey

Delivering impact for Governments, NGOs, and Corporations.

Thirty Five Investment Holding logo

Head of Research

Thirty Five Investment Holding | Doha, Qatar

April 2026 – Present
  • Working with the investment team on due diligence, feasibility analysis and opportunity screening across emerging markets.
  • Covering critical minerals, energy, infrastructure, food security and real estate in Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
  • Building the research infrastructure behind investment decisions, from feasibility models to AI-assisted verification.
ECES logo

Consultant

Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES) | Cairo

April 2026 – Present
  • Advising on research and data-science work following nine years at the center.
ProfitOPS.ai logo

Head of Decision Science

ProfitOPS.ai | USA, Remote

Sept 2024 – March 2026
  • Led causal-AI work for Fortune 100 clients including UPS and WestRock, using “what-if” simulations to test decisions upfront.
  • Diagnosed the root causes of costly sheet breaks on WestRock’s paperboard lines to reduce downtime and waste.
  • Created ProRCA, an open-source tool that traces a drop in a business KPI back to its root causes.
ORF Middle East logo

Senior Visiting Fellow

ORF Middle East | Dubai, UAE

May – Sept 2025
  • Engineered an “AI-Impact Index” to quantify AI-driven job augmentation and disruption for the UAE Dept of Human Resources.
  • Led data analysis for the tri-national “Future of Jobs” report (UAE, Egypt, India), using LLMs to structure 500,000+ job postings.
ECES logo

Principal Economist & Head of Data Science Unit

Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES) | Cairo

Jan 2021 – March 2026
  • Led a multidisciplinary team of 10 economists and AI engineers, bringing Gen-AI and causal ML into policy work.
  • Directed donor-funded policy research for USAID and the National Bank of Egypt, with findings briefed to ministers.
  • Built Egypt’s first real-time labour-demand platform and trade reforms that cut release time by 30%.
ECES logo

Research Analyst → Economist

Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES) | Cairo

Sep 2017 – Dec 2020
  • Authored 100+ economic reports and 10 research papers on trade, taxation, industry and labour markets.

High-Impact Projects

USAID Sponsored

Causal AI for Trade Policy

Architected a microdata collection framework across 100 companies. Synthesized a Causal Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to present strategic recommendations directly to the Minister of Trade.

DoWhy EconML DAGs
National Bank of Egypt

Labor Market Intelligence

Pioneered Egypt’s first talent demand platform. Designed an end-to-end pipeline processing 60,000+ job postings quarterly (ILO-ISCO-08 standard). Validated by World Bank stakeholders.

NLP Data Pipeline

Publications & Policy Briefs

ProRCA: A causal Python package for actionable root cause analysis

2025

Dawoud, A., & Talupula, S. • arXiv

A causal inference package built on DoWhy to discover complete causal chain reactions.

AI-Driven Framework for Real-Time Labor Market Intelligence

2025

Dawoud, A. • ECES Working Paper

Detailed framework for real-time intelligence of demand for skills and talent in the Egyptian labor market.

Business Process Analysis of Exporting and Importing

2023

Dawoud, A., et al. • ECES Working Paper

Application of the UN/CEFACT model and UML to re-engineer national trade procedures, projecting a 70% reduction in export time.

Unveiling the Secrets of Freelancing Success

2024

Dawoud, A. • ECES Working Paper

Comparative study of Egyptian and Indian freelancers against global demand to identify success strategies.

Properly addressing informality in the Arab world

2020

Abdel Latif. A, & A. Dawoud • G20 Policy Briefs

A new framework for addressing economic informality in Arab nations, focusing on formal job creation and social mobility.

Estimation of Corona Pandemic's Impact on Population

2020

Dawoud, A. • ECES

Estimated the impact by measuring the disruptive effect of the pandemic on family planning activities and resources.

Teaching & Leadership

Lead Data Science Instructor

National Bank of Egypt (2023-2024)

Designed and led 30-hour hands-on data analysis workshops for senior leaders.

Public Policy Workshop Lead

The Egyptian Parliament (2022)

Trained 15 Egyptian Parliamentarians on quantitative methods for policy evaluation.

Education & Specialization

Postgrad in Applied Economics & Causal Data Science

Self-Directed Curriculum | 2018 - 2024

A rigorous, multi-year self-directed specialization combining advanced econometric theory with modern machine learning and causal inference methodologies.

Bachelor of Economics (Honors)

Cairo University | 2017

Minor in Statistics. Graduated with Honors. Faculty of Economics and Political Science.

Advanced Coursework & Certifications

Causal Inference & Stats
HarvardX: Design-Based & DAGs MITx: RCTs (J-PAL) Statistical Rethinking (Bayesian)
Machine Learning & AI
Stanford CS229 DeepLearning.AI TensorFlow Developer
Economics & Computation
MITx: Development Economics MIT 6.100L (Python) Harvard CS50