Dawoud

Despite unprecedented strategic and investment cooperation—exemplified by the Ras El Hekma project—the trade relationship between the UAE and Egypt remains underdeveloped. Bilateral trade shows concentrated peaks in select sectors rather than broad integration, reflecting a gap between geopolitical alignment and economic depth. The unrealized potential—about US $2.8 billion for the UAE and US $1.5 billion for Egypt—underscores a structural imbalance: the UAE’s lies in diverse industrial goods, while Egypt’s is narrowly tied to commodities like gold, exposing weakness in its manufacturing base. To address this, the paper advocates shifting from capital-intensive megadeals to building a “shared industrial spine” through stronger industrial competitiveness, SME-focused trade corridors, and upgraded trade and logistics infrastructure. Paper Link

Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is becoming ever more critical as modern systems grow in complexity, volume of data, and interdependencies. While traditional RCA methods frequently rely on correlation-based or rule-based techniques, these approaches can prove inadequate in highly dynamic, multi-layered environments. In this paper, we present a pathway-tracing package built on the DoWhy causal inference library. Our method integrates conditional anomaly scoring, noise-based attribution, and depth-first path exploration to reveal multi-hop causal chains. By systematically tracing entire causal pathways from an observed anomaly back to the initial triggers, our approach provides a comprehensive, end-to-end RCA solution. Experimental evaluations with synthetic anomaly injections demonstrate the package's ability to accurately isolate triggers and rank root causes by their overall significance. Paper Link

Egypt has been repeatedly undergoing the very same problems of the persistent debt burden, the large budget deficit, and limited exports, among others, way before all the recent shocks and international disruptions. This all points to the fact that the problems are deeper than what meets the eye. Given the importance and missing focus on this deeper level of problems, the study chooses to focus on the internal challenges. Paper Link

This study aims to comprehensively assess both the formal and informal procedures associated with the export process of a specific set of products. In this analysis, ECES has employed the Business Process Analysis (BPA) Model issued by the UN Centre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic Business (UN/CEFACT). Notably, this marks the first time in Egypt that a globally standardized modeling language has been used, enabling a comparative evaluation of Egypt’s export processes on a global scale. Paper Link

This paper seeks to study the extent of the soundness of managing the government budget, which, if properly prepared, could act as a key driver of change in Egypt. The study examines the extent of consistency between the budget on the one hand and the constitution and the state’s economic and social plan on the other hand. Section II of the study conducts a detailed comparative analysis of revenues and expenditures during the period 2010/2011 – 2021/2022 (various years), as well as an evaluation of projects funded by grants and loans. Paper Link

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, health systems around the world have focused their efforts on responding to the crisis and combating the pandemic. This came at the expense of usual basic health services, including reproductive and sexual health services, of which family planning is at the heart. This paper estimates the impact of service disruption due to COVID-19 on population growth in Egypt. Paper Link

This working paper discusses the importance and current status of Egypt’s ready-made garments and home textiles industry. It sheds light on the main challenges facing this industry compared to selected competitive countries. Finally, it concludes by offering a set of proposed measures that are based on the constraints facing the industry and in light of international experiences of countries that have achieved remarkable progress in it. Paper Link

The agricultural sector is one of the most important sectors of the Egyptian economy, as it represents 11.2 percent of GDP and employs about 23.8 percent of total labor in Egypt. This paper estimates the impact of COVID crisis on the overall sector performance in Egypt. Paper Link

Understanding the repercussions of the Corona crisis on those working in the informal sector in Egypt, whether individuals or companies, requires a disciplined scientific understanding of the nature of this sector, its dynamics, and the fundamental changes it has undergone in recent decades, as well as how it responded and interacted with the economic crises Egypt has gone through previously, and finally, the repercussions on the sector's role in the COVID crisis. Paper Link

This paper seeks to identify key factors for a successful population policy in Egypt. For this purpose, the first section overviews eight leading international experiences in population to find the main contributors to the demographic transition in each of these experiences. Section 2 assesses Egypt's management of the population file from 1930s to 2019 divided into six periods, to identify the main reasons for success or failure in each period separately. Finally, the third section compares the most important features of the Egyptian experience with those of the international experiences, concluding with a proposed optimum institutional form. Paper Link

This study aims to provide legal solutions for the problem of indecisiveness by comparing the criminal liability of a civil servant with the civil responsibility of
the board members of joint stock companies. Findings suggest that a legislation is needed to protect public officials and employees from being penalized for their decisions, provided that the relevant conduct is legitimate and does not entail corruption. Paper Link