Ahmed Dawoud

Economist

Data Analyst

Business Process Analyst

Business Intelligence Specialist

As an Applied Economist, I operate at the frontier where causal inference, artificial intelligence, and economic strategy converge. I specialize in building advanced quantitative models that move beyond simple correlations to uncover the precise drivers of change. By harnessing a full suite of methods—from Causal Machine Learning and DAGs to Large Language Models—I tackle critical challenges in international trade, labor markets, and corporate optimization, providing a clear, evidence-based understanding of what truly shapes outcomes.

This rigorous approach translates into tangible impact for leaders across both the public and private sectors. Through collaborations with USAID and the World Bank, I have equipped government ministers with the clarity to streamline national trade and build resilient workforce strategies. In the corporate world, I lead the development of core algorithms that empower top Fortune 500 companies in logistics, paperboard production, and retail to make optimal, data-driven decisions.

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What I Do

Causal Inference

I move beyond correlation to answer the critical "why" behind economic trends. I specialize in building causal models to simulate policy impacts, quantify the effect of interventions, and provide a clear, defensible basis for high-stakes decisions for governments, companies, and international organizations.

Web Scraping

I architect and operate scalable data systems that fuel analysis. From pioneering Egypt's first real-time labor market intelligence platform to building automated data collection tools that saved over 21,000 work hours on a single project, I ensure that decision-making is built on a foundation of reliable, timely, and comprehensive data.

Decision Intelligence

I design and deploy AI systems that transform raw data into strategic assets. This includes leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to structure massive unstructured datasets (like 500k+ job postings) and developing the core decision science algorithms that power platforms like ProfitOps, delivering optimized solutions to Fortune 500 clients.

Strategic Advisory

I translate complex quantitative findings into clear, actionable strategy for senior leaders. I design and lead workshops for government ministers, Parliamentarians, and corporate executives, and serve as a technical liaison for institutions like the World Bank and WEF, ensuring that advanced analytics drive real-world progress.

Testimonials

I have worked with Ahmed for a year and a half at ECES. He is such a committed, hard-working, dedicated high caliber with extraordinary mathematical and analytical skills and a superb ability to process and analyze data.

Dalya Mokhtar

N - Gage Consulting

I worked with Ahmed for almost one year and a half. I found him a conscientious and hard working professional. He is also a very cooperative team member, incredibly generous with his time and expertise.

Hoda El-Abbadi

Central Bank of Egypt

Ahmed is the person you depend on to get the job done on time. He dedicates the required effort to make sure that team members are on the same page and the outcomes are being delivered on time.

khaled Wahid

ECES

I was lucky to work with Ahmed on 3 months data science project. His techniques, tips and tricks revolutionized our analytical skills, I hope we contribute together in more projects as there is a lot to learn from him

Abdallah El-lawah

dnata - Dubai

In the short time I’ve worked with Ahmed, I’ve learned a great deal and gained valuable insights from his expertise. I highly recommend working with him in any future endeavors he pursues. His skills, dedication, and collaborative nature make him a valuable asset to any team.

Aya Saleh

ECES

Working under Dawoud has been a privilege. His passion for excellence and ability to empower others stands out. He consistently motivates his team to reach their full potential, providing guidance that combines deep understanding with genuine support.

Yousef Nasr

ECES

Resume

6 Years of Experience

Education

2018 - Present

Applied Causal Inference and ML

Self-Directed

Curated a personalized, graduate-level curriculum to gain cutting-edge skills in applied economics and machine learning, focusing on practical knowledge not available in traditional local programs. Completed advanced coursework from world-class institutions including Stanford University, MIT, Georgia State University, Max Planck Institute, and Microsoft Research.

2013 - 2017

Economics and Statistics

Cairo University

Bachelor's degree in economics and statistics from the faculty of economics and political science, Cairo university - Grade: very good with honors

Experience

June 2025 - Present

Senior Visiting Fellow

ORF-ME

Engineered an "AI-Impact Index"to quantify AI-driven job augmentation and disruption, providing the UAE Department of Human Resources with a diagnostics tool for national workforce and economic planning.

Developed a scalable data pipelineto extract and classify job tasks and skills, applying the ILO-ISCO-08 standard to enable comparative analysis across diverse countries and economic sectors.

Spearheaded the data analysis for the tri-national "Future of Jobs" report(UAE, Egypt, India), leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to process and structure a quarterly stream of 500,000+ unstructured online job postings at scale.

Jan 2023 - Present

Head of Data Analytics

ECES

Directed a multidisciplinary team of 10 economists and AI engineers, pioneering the application of Gen-AI and Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) to national economic challenges.

Led flagship research projects funded by international partners like USAID, focused on quantifying the impact of trade policy and streamlining national trade procedures, producing 30% reduction on total release time.

Developed novel quantitative modelsto analyze the socioeconomic impact of AI on the Egyptian labor market, producing foundational research that now informs national workforce strategy.

Served as the primary technical liaison for the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the World Bank, translating complex research into actionable policy for senior stakeholders.

Sept 2017 - Dec 2022

Economist

ECES

Authored over 100 economic reports and policy analyses, providing timely insights on national economic developments to high-level government and business stakeholders.

Published 10 research papers and a key policy brief on diverse topics including the impact of COVID-19 on critical sectors (agriculture, population growth, informal economy), manufacturing policy, international trade, taxation, and labor market dynamics.

Technical Skills

Economic Research

95%

Causal Inference

90%

Statistical Analysis

80%

Bayesian Statistics

80%

Data Cleaning

90%

Data Visualization

98%

Data Storytelling

95%

Report Writing

95%

Tools

Pandas

95%

Numpy

80%

Matplotlib

95%

Seaborn

95%

Scikit Learn

90%

DoWhy

95%

EconML

90%

Excel

95%

Tableau

90%

Certificates

Portfolio

Co-founding the Community Development Organization in Nitema Village

Analysis of the Freelance Job Landscape in Egypt

Detailed Analysis of the Gender Pay Gap in Egypt

Demand for Jobs in Egypt – Fourth Quarter

Demand for Jobs in Egypt – First Quarter

Publications

Research Papers, Reports, and Policy Briefs

August 2025

A Partnership of Paradoxes: Analysing the Latent Potential in Egypt-UAE Trade

ORF-ME

Despite unprecedented strategic and investment cooperation—exemplified by the Ras El Hekma project—the trade relationship between the UAE and Egypt remains underdeveloped. Bilateral trade shows concentrated peaks in select sectors rather than broad integration, reflecting a gap between geopolitical alignment and economic depth. The unrealized potential—about US $2.8 billion for the UAE and US $1.5 billion for Egypt—underscores a structural imbalance: the UAE’s lies in diverse industrial goods, while Egypt’s is narrowly tied to commodities like gold, exposing weakness in its manufacturing base. To address this, the paper advocates shifting from capital-intensive megadeals to building a “shared industrial spine” through stronger industrial competitiveness, SME-focused trade corridors, and upgraded trade and logistics infrastructure. Paper Link

July 2025

EU-UAE Trade Negotiations: A Potential Path to Gulf-Wide European Trade

ORF-ME

Amid stalled region-to-region trade negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the new bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks between the EU and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) represent a significant policy shift. This paper argues that the EU-UAE FTA, rather than undermining a broader regional deal, could serve as a strategic catalyst for a future EU-GCC agreement. It identifies the primary risk of this bilateral approach as potential trade diversion from other GCC members, particularly Saudi Arabia. Drawing an analogy with the EU-Singapore FTA and its successful "ASEAN Cumulation" clause, the authors propose that incorporating a similar "GCC Cumulation" provision is essential. Such a clause would incentivize intra-GCC supply chains, mitigate trade diversion, and ensure the bilateral agreement fosters wider regional economic integration, a feature currently missing from the EU's tabled proposal. Paper Link

July 2025

An AI-Driven Lens on The Demand side of the Egyptian Labor Market (2021-To Date)Part I: A Framework for Real-Time Labor Market Intelligence: Data, Methods, and Key Findings

ECES

This paper details the project’s scalable methodology, focusing on its automated data collection, cleaning, and analysis pipeline. The system has produced a rich dataset of 350,000 job postings, providing granular, real-time intelligence on the skills, occupations, and qualifications sought by over 28,000 companies. We present key findings on persistent market structures and insights from thematic analyses. By delivering both a replicable framework and the crucial demand-side data it generates, this initiative offers a vital tool to inform Egypt’s policymaking, educational planning, and workforce development strategies. Paper Link

March 2025

ProRCA: A Causal Python Package for Actionable Root Cause Analysis in Real-world Business Scenarios

arXiv

Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is becoming ever more critical as modern systems grow in complexity, volume of data, and interdependencies. While traditional RCA methods frequently rely on correlation-based or rule-based techniques, these approaches can prove inadequate in highly dynamic, multi-layered environments. In this paper, we present a pathway-tracing package built on the DoWhy causal inference library. Our method integrates conditional anomaly scoring, noise-based attribution, and depth-first path exploration to reveal multi-hop causal chains. By systematically tracing entire causal pathways from an observed anomaly back to the initial triggers, our approach provides a comprehensive, end-to-end RCA solution. Experimental evaluations with synthetic anomaly injections demonstrate the package's ability to accurately isolate triggers and rank root causes by their overall significance. Paper Link

April 2024

Unveiling the Secrets of Freelancing Success: Comparative Study of Egypt and India

ECES

This paper explores freelancing in Egypt, comparing it to India's established market to identify growth strategies. It highlights freelancing’s potential to reduce unemployment, generate foreign currency, and support economic diversification. While Egyptian freelancers excel in execution, they struggle to secure opportunities due to a skills-market mismatch. Part-time freelancing is prevalent in Egypt, driven by income uncertainties, unlike India’s more intensive approach. The study also underscores the need for improved communication, self-marketing, and proposal-writing skills to enhance client acquisition and retention Paper Link

Nov 2023

Abdel Latif, A., et al. Stabilization and Adjustment in MENA: The Case of Egypt. Working Paper No. 1663, November 2023. ERF.

ERF

Egypt has been repeatedly undergoing the very same problems of the persistent debt burden, the large budget deficit, and limited exports, among others, way before all the recent shocks and international disruptions. This all points to the fact that the problems are deeper than what meets the eye. Given the importance and missing focus on this deeper level of problems, the study chooses to focus on the internal challenges. Paper Link

Nov 2023

Dawoud, A., S. Bahaa, and R. Seif El-Dine. Business Process Analysis of Exporting and Importing Few Specific Products: Export of Readymade Garments (RMG). ECES-WP230-E, 2023.

ECES

This study aims to comprehensively assess both the formal and informal procedures associated with the export process of a specific set of products. In this analysis, ECES has employed the Business Process Analysis (BPA) Model issued by the UN Centre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic Business (UN/CEFACT). Notably, this marks the first time in Egypt that a globally standardized modeling language has been used, enabling a comparative evaluation of Egypt’s export processes on a global scale. Paper Link

Sept 2021

Dawoud. A, and R. Seif El-Dine. Sound Budgeting as a Driver of Change: A Detailed Comparative Analysis in Light of Best International Standards and Practices. ECES-WP219, 2021.

ECES

This paper seeks to study the extent of the soundness of managing the government budget, which, if properly prepared, could act as a key driver of change in Egypt. The study examines the extent of consistency between the budget on the one hand and the constitution and the state’s economic and social plan on the other hand. Section II of the study conducts a detailed comparative analysis of revenues and expenditures during the period 2010/2011 – 2021/2022 (various years), as well as an evaluation of projects funded by grants and loans. Paper Link

Jan 2022

Dawoud, A. Quantitative estimation of the impact of the Corona pandemic on population growth in Egypt. ECES, View on The Crisis, Edition 20, 2020.

ECES

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, health systems around the world have focused their efforts on responding to the crisis and combating the pandemic. This came at the expense of usual basic health services, including reproductive and sexual health services, of which family planning is at the heart. This paper estimates the impact of service disruption due to COVID-19 on population growth in Egypt. Paper Link

June 2021

Dawoud. A, and R. Seif El-Dine. Egypt’s Readymade Garments and Home Textile Industry: Specific Proposals to Solve Industry Problems Given the Global Competitiveness Situation. WP218, 2021

ECES

This working paper discusses the importance and current status of Egypt’s ready-made garments and home textiles industry. It sheds light on the main challenges facing this industry compared to selected competitive countries. Finally, it concludes by offering a set of proposed measures that are based on the constraints facing the industry and in light of international experiences of countries that have achieved remarkable progress in it. Paper Link

Dec 2020

Abdel Latif. A, and A. Dawoud. Properly addressing informality in the Arab world: Nature, severity, and possible solutions. G20 Policy Briefs, 2020.

G20

Informality has been a persistent feature of Arab economies. We approach informality from the worker’s perspective, starting with the necessary preconditions for specific policy recommendations. The proposal emphasizes the importance of combining the right incentives and sensible checks and balances. The incentives typically work on two parallel tracks: slowing down the pace of informality and tackling the stock through a set of well-integrated policies. Brief Link

Dec 2020

Dawoud, A. Impact of the Corona pandemic on agriculture in Egypt. ECES, View on The Crisis, Edition 24, 2020.

ECES

The agricultural sector is one of the most important sectors of the Egyptian economy, as it represents 11.2 percent of GDP and employs about 23.8 percent of total labor in Egypt. This paper estimates the impact of COVID crisis on the overall sector performance in Egypt. Paper Link

April 2020

Dawoud, A. How COVID19 is disrupting the informal sector in Egypt. ECES, View on The Crisis, Edition 7, 2020.

ECES

Understanding the repercussions of the Corona crisis on those working in the informal sector in Egypt, whether individuals or companies, requires a disciplined scientific understanding of the nature of this sector, its dynamics, and the fundamental changes it has undergone in recent decades, as well as how it responded and interacted with the economic crises Egypt has gone through previously, and finally, the repercussions on the sector's role in the COVID crisis. Paper Link

Aug 2019

Dawoud. A, and A. Abdel Latif. The Ideal Institutional Set Up of the Population File in Egypt. ECES-WP203- A, 2019.

ECES

This paper seeks to identify key factors for a successful population policy in Egypt. For this purpose, the first section overviews eight leading international experiences in population to find the main contributors to the demographic transition in each of these experiences. Section 2 assesses Egypt's management of the population file from 1930s to 2019 divided into six periods, to identify the main reasons for success or failure in each period separately. Finally, the third section compares the most important features of the Egyptian experience with those of the international experiences, concluding with a proposed optimum institutional form. Paper Link

April 2018

Farahat. R, and A. Dawoud. Indecisiveness of Public Officials: The Problem and Solutions. ECES-WP192, 2018

ECES

This study aims to provide legal solutions for the problem of indecisiveness by comparing the criminal liability of a civil servant with the civil responsibility of
the board members of joint stock companies. Findings suggest that a legislation is needed to protect public officials and employees from being penalized for their decisions, provided that the relevant conduct is legitimate and does not entail corruption. Paper Link

Blog

Blog Posts, Articles, and Views

Causal Inference Data Analysis

18 Jul 2025

Unlocking the Power of Panel Data: A Beginner’s Guide with Python’s linearmodels

Causal Inference

18 Jul 2024

Double Machine Learning: Advancing Causal Inference with Machine Learning Techniques

Causal Inference

18 Jul 2024

Doubly Robust Methods in Causal Inference: A Powerful Approach to Estimating Treatment Effects

Causal Inference

18 Jul 2024

Understanding S, T, and X Learners: Meta-Learners for Causal Inference

LLMs

12 Jun 2024

Demystifying BERT: An Intuitive Dive into Transformer-based Language Models

Data Analysis

09 Jun 2024

Mastering Pandas: A Comprehensive Step-by-Step Guide to Efficient Data Analysis

Causal Inference Learning English

05 Jun 2024

Harnessing the Power of Text Embeddings for Causal Inference

Causal Inference

05 Jun 2024

Unveiling Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML): A Practical Guide

Causal Inference